| Last week, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to Beijing marked the first Canadian prime ministerial trip to China since 2017, culminating in a landmark trade agreement. Canada lowered its tariff on Chinese electric vehicles, while China reciprocated by reducing tariffs on Canadian canola seed. Carney emphasized the importance of renewing and strengthening the Canada-China partnership, asserting that these efforts signal a move toward a new global order, with Canadian exporters increasingly seeking opportunities beyond the US market.
Impact on Economic Sectors
The prevailing uncertainty surrounding trade—driven by tariffs and shifting alliances—has contributed to a decline in housing market activity, particularly in Ontario and British Columbia. In contrast, Quebec’s housing market remains more robust, although tariffs on aluminum and lumber have dampened broader economic activity in the province and across Atlantic Canada.
Despite widespread concern about these developments, Canada’s outlook for broadening trading partnerships is stronger than many anticipate. The country possesses substantial competitive advantages that position it well to meet international demand over the next decade.
Canada’s Competitive Advantages
Canada’s strengths lie in its rich natural resources, including oil and gas, uranium, critical minerals, food and agriproducts, fresh water, and Arctic access. These endowments provide a solid foundation for trade diversification.
Historically, 75% of Canadian exports have gone to the US, with agreements like CUSMA offering tariff protections for many Canadian goods. However, recent developments and strategic initiatives are opening new opportunities, especially in the energy and agri-food sectors, where Canada’s geography, resource reserves, and trade agreements align with growing demand from Europe and Asia.
Cross-Cutting Advantages
Resource Endowments
Canada is a leading global supplier of scarce commodities, including crude oil, natural gas, potash, canola, and other agri-food products. Its status as the world’s largest producer of potash is crucial to the US fertilizer supply, and there is significant potential to expand exports to major importers like Brazil, India, and China.
Trade Architecture
Canada benefits from a robust network of trade agreements, including CETA with the EU and CPTPP with Asia-Pacific economies. These agreements lower barriers for exports to Europe and Asia, offering advantages over non-preferential competitors. The country’s trade strategy now aims for a 50% increase in overseas (non-US) exports, a goal already being met ahead of schedule in some sectors.
Reputation and Standards
Canada’s reputation as a politically stable, rules-based, and relatively low-carbon supplier is increasingly valued by global buyers prioritizing security of supply, especially in energy and food. This reputational premium is particularly important for European and Indo-Pacific customers seeking to mitigate risks posed by Russia and certain Middle Eastern suppliers.
Sectoral Opportunities
Oil and Gas: West Coast Egress to Asia
The Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) and LNG Canada projects have significantly increased Canada’s pipeline and liquefaction capacity, providing direct access to Pacific markets. Since 2017, TMX has enabled a 130% rise in energy exports to overseas destinations, with LNG shipments reaching Japan, South Korea, China, and Malaysia. Chinese purchases of Canadian oil have reached all-time highs.
For North Asian markets, Canadian Pacific Coast LNG shipments are much faster than those from the US Gulf Coast, cutting approximately 20 days off voyages to South Korea. This geographic advantage, combined with Canada’s vast gas reserves and political stability, makes it a structurally competitive supplier to Asian gas markets.
Following the Ukraine conflict, Europe and Asia have strong incentives to diversify their energy sources away from Russia. Canada’s new export infrastructure directly supports this demand, with the global LNG market expected to remain tight through the mid-2020s, offering a window for new Canadian supply to secure long-term contracts.
Metals, Steel, Aluminum, and Autos: Input Strength vs. Finished Goods
Canada’s primary advantages are in upstream metals and minerals, such as iron ore and critical minerals, rather than in finished steel and automotive products. Metal and non-metallic mineral exports have grown rapidly—up about 74% since 2017—driven by gold and other metals.
For steel, aluminum, and auto parts, Canada’s ability to market low-carbon content and secure supply is a key differentiator, especially in jurisdictions tightening carbon and supply-chain regulations. While Canada’s participation in multiple free trade agreements provides tariff preferences in Europe and Asia, the integration and scale of the North American auto platform continue to present challenges for diversification in finished goods.
Agriculture: Canola, Potash, and Food Products
Canada plays a central role in global canola and potash markets and faces strong demand from large agricultural economies outside the US. The country supplies roughly 85–90% of US potash imports but is positioned to pivot toward growing markets such as Brazil, India, and China if US trade becomes less attractive.
China is a major buyer of Canadian raw canola seed and has greater processing capacity than other markets. Canada’s access to Asian and European trade channels further supports diversification. According to Farm Credit Canada, approximately $12 billion CAD in food and beverage exports could be redirected from the US to other markets or to domestic buyers, highlighting significant potential for reallocation.
Canada’s surplus potash supply helps keep domestic fertilizer costs low, allowing grain and oilseed exports to remain competitively priced in third markets. Combined with high standards for food safety and sustainability, Canada presents a compelling value proposition in premium and bulk agri-food markets.
Hydropower and Virtual Water
In the near term, “water exports” are primarily realized through hydroelectric power from resource-rich provinces, rather than bulk water shipments. These hydro resources support green power exports, particularly to the northeastern US, and may contribute to future cross-border electricity grids.
As climate risks grow, Canada’s abundance of water and arable land creates long-term advantages in producing water-intensive goods such as grains, oilseeds, forestry products, and certain metals—positioning the country to supply water-stressed regions globally.
Policy and Political Economy
Canada’s federal strategy now explicitly positions trade diversification as central to risk management and economic resilience. Dedicated tools and financing, including Export Development Canada and trade commissioner services, are helping exporters access non-US markets. Combined with private-sector investments in logistics and port capacity, these efforts continue to reduce the costs and barriers associated with reorienting exports.
Conclusion
Canada’s structural advantages enable a gradual reduction in marginal dependence on the US, particularly in energy, agri-food, and some metals and advanced manufacturing sectors. However, full substitution in autos and certain processed goods remains unrealistic and inefficient due to the deep integration of the North American market. Overall, Canada’s expanding network of trading partners and robust resource base position it well for a resilient economic future.
As these successes mount, Canadian consumer and business confidence will rise, re-igniting pent-up demand in housing. As we move through this transition year, optimism will mount, and reduced housing prices, combined with lower mortgage rates, will return housing activity to more normal levels in the hardest-hit provinces of Ontario and British Columbia. |
